Should the Steelers be afraid of Baltimore?
The Pittsburgh Steelers play the Baltimore Ravens this Saturday January 11th at 8pm. The Steelers are 9.5 point underdogs and the general consensus across both national media and Steeler media is that this game is already over. There are not a lot of people giving the Steelers a chance in this game. I want to ask why. Is this the thought process simply because the Steelers have lost their final four games? Is it because the Ravens have won their final four games? Is it because this game will be played in Baltimore? Is this because the Steelers have looked like a struggling team over the last 4 games? For you, it may be a combination of any of these items. However, are the Ravens truly a team that the Steelers cannot, do not, and will not match up well with on Saturday night? Let’s explore:
The Ravens are currently on a 4 game win streak since their bye week. During that stretch a lot of talking heads have praised their defense. After their bye, they got to play 2 games at home, and 2 games against the Browns and the Giants. The Giants have the 30th ranked offense and the Browns the 28th. One of the other teams the Ravens played in that stretch were the Texans. The Texans have a 4-5 record over their final 9 games and also have been struggling on offense. Is the Raven’s D an elite unit that can shut everyone down? Or are they a team that got to play some bad offenses late? The Steelers did accumulate 303 yards of offense against them in week 16 and if it weren’t for a fumble on the 5 and a pick six, that game would have been 1 score or a different result.
The Steelers and the Ravens scored victories against nearly the identical teams this season. The Steelers and Ravens each won at home in the series, they each beat the likes of Denver, Cincinnati, Cleveland (once), NY Giants, NY Jets, Chargers and Commanders. The Ravens beat the Bills in week 4 as the only major win that seems to be a difference. The Ravens lost to the Chiefs, Browns, and Eagles. All teams that also beat the Steelers. The Steelers have a loss to the Colts and the Ravens have one to the Raiders. If one looks at the body of work over the course of this season, are the Ravens a much better team than the Steelers? Or, is recency bias taking over right now?
The Ravens have the highest ranked rushing offense. This is partly because Lamar Jackson runs the ball at a frequency of a secondary running back. Lamar Jackson has 139 rushing attempts this season. That is 19 more than Jaylen Warren. The Ravens have a good, if not great offense; however, their lowest point total of the season (16), came against the Steelers in week 11. Lamar Jackson has 4 interceptions on the season and 2 of them were against the Steelers. Lamar Jackson’s lowest quarterback rating of the season against the Steelers. In addition, he has only thrown for 207 yards in each of the games he played the Steelers this season. So yes, the Ravens have a good rushing offense; however, the Steelers have the sixth ranked rushing defense. And, Lamar has played like the MVP this season, except when he plays the Steelers. So with those two items in mind, should the Steelers really be counted out already?
Lastly, it looks like the game in Baltimore on Saturday night will be played in 27-28 degree weather and a little bit of snow. Snow is a great equalizer of offenses.
I know a lot of the Steeler nation is very pessimistic about this game; however, I am not one of them. I firmly believe that if the Steelers play the way they are capable of playing, they will win this game. What I mean is that if the Steelers win the turnover battle, control the ball, and move the ball the way they did when they were 10-3, they will win. If they play the way they have played over the last few weeks with uncharacteristic fumbles, drops, broken coverages, they will lose. But I do not think that this game is over before it starts, and neither should you.