Indianapolis (thoughts)
I just watched Mike Tomlin press conference and have been reviewing the Colts tape and statistics. The Steelers have a full week to prepare and have a few good pieces of news today. It appears some of the guys that were not 100% last week (Seumalo and Harris) are benefiting from the few extra days of recovery. Coach Tomlin addressed several of the current news cycle “hot takes” including Minkah’s comments, George Pickens, TJ’s concussion, and play calling. I agree with his assessment that fans frustration and players frustration is warranted; however, he also stated they are working hard this week to fix and negate some of that negativity. I do think that Mitch having a full week will help him and the running game should be primed for this matchup.
The Colts currently rank 25th in overall defense, 17th against the pass, and 26th against the rush. They currently are giving up 24.6 points per game. When comparing these to the Steelers most recent opponent (NE), the Steelers are facing a less stout and weaker defense. This needs to be exploited and prioritized. On paper, there is no reason that the Steelers shouldn’t focus on running the football. This would be an ideal game to control the line of scrimmage and wear down the Indy defense.
On the offensive side, Indianapolis scores approximately 24 points per game and actually run the ball less than they pass it. Minshew is completing about 63% of his passes and has 11 TDs to 8 INTs this season. He has been sacked 23 times this season (same number as Kenny Pickett). Obviously, if Jonathan Taylor plays, the running game will be more dynamic; however, Moss has not been too shabby this season in his own right. Nevertheless, the Steelers have made stopping the run a point of emphasis since Cam Heyward’s return and they have been successful in that effort since.
Based on the season’s trajectory, work that is on tape, stats, and results, the Steelers have the tools to beat the Colts. No one should be shocked if the Steelers win this game; however, neither should they if they were to lose. I think if the Steelers can get a lead or keep this game within 1 score, they will win. I do think it will be tough for the Steelers to come back on the road from a larger than 1 score deficit. I actually feel more confident about this game than I did about either of the prior two.
Early week predictions based on current information and assumption that TJ, Alex play Saturday: PIT 20 Ind 10. In addition, I think Denver loses to a frustrated Lions team, Buffalo loses to Dallas. I think Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Houston all rebound this week, which means the Steelers need to win this game.
As I have continued to mention recently on the podcast and here: ANY team can beat ANY other team ANY week. As a thought experiment: The Steelers have wins against Baltimore and Cleveland (AFC playoff teams). They have lost to Arizona and NE (teams mathematically out of the playoffs - or soon to be). They beat Green Bay who has beaten the Chiefs. The Chiefs beat the Dolphins who beat the Broncos by 50 points, and the Broncos beat the Chiefs. The Steelers beat Cleveland and Cincinnati who both beat SF, who beat the Steelers by 23. The Colts lost to the Bengals yesterday by 2 scores, but they beat the Ravens in Baltimore this season. Dallas looked like a legitimate title contender last night, and in this season they have lost to Arizona. I am not worried about the prior two performances by the Steelers. Each week and each game is a new opportunity to root for my team.
Go Steelers.